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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Now when the Arab part of Palestine is divided between two opposing political and military factions, this new situation deserves our special attention. A collapse of a state authority, even if it's officially only an autonomous authority, happens only rarely. Not finding any compromise between Fatah and Hamas may lead to creation of two separate Arab political identities in the occupied territories, one for Gaza and another for the West Bank. This development will change the Middle East. For the first time in history of the region, a radical religious movement takes over the supreme authority on a given territory. What will be the consequences for the neighbors, for the world, we may only guess.

Pakistan and Bangladesh, England and New Zealand, Germany and Austria, United States and Anglophone Canada, countries in Latin America; the examples of how a territorial divide may produce specific political identity are numerous. The Arab part of Palestine offers just the last in time example of this logic. Separated territorially for exactly 40 years by Israel, people there had several political and identity options. They could either accept being part of the neighboring Arab identities, Egypt and Jordan; or being a separate but united nation; or being separate nations. They had tried the first two, now they may be willing to try the third option.

When Israel took over Gaza and the West Bank, it in fact occupied territories that were part of Egypt and Jordan. These territories were internationally recognized as parts of these two states. The authentic reading of the first post-1967 UN resolutions is to make Israel return these territories to their legitimate rulers, not to establish an independent state. But that was then, now we live in a somewhat different situation. Just for the sake of historic exactness, when the PLO was first created after 1967, its goal was to liberate the Arab people of Palestine, not the Palestinians as a separate nation.

Decades under foreign occupation however produced a certain shift in the people's identity. By the end of the 1980s the Arab people of Palestine were already Palestinians, a nation without a country, a nation that has right to have a country. By that time both Egypt and Jordan had renounced their territorial claims against Israel. It was an excellent time to make a peace and to solve the main Israeli-Arab problem. This opportunity seems gone now. Another major shift seems underway in the Arab part of Palestine. The territorial division is turning before our eyes into political and identity division. A people that struggled to be considered as a nation, is now making steps toward political disunion. This disunion, if kept for a long time, may produce a split in identity, two instead of one nation.

If this happens, it won't be a result of some international conspiracy against the Arabs in Palestine. Actually, nobody in the region, including the Palestinians, the Arab neighbors, Israel, Iran, the great powers, nobody is winning out of this situation. The Palestinians and their allies lose a bargain power against Israel, Israel must negotiate with two instead of one partner, the neighbors must fear radical religious regime on their doorstep, and the great powers appear much less great if something so unexpected can happen under their noses.

What will happen next is everybody's guess. I expect that each side will try to consolidate power within the territory it has under control. They may both succeed, although they will face different challenges. Hamas will have to provide social services within a context of economic blockade; Fatah will have to secure its power within a context of shaken legitimacy. Hamas can do it by attacking Israel; Fatah can do it by making peace with Israel. Who will succeed first or rather who will look losing ground first? It's impossible to predict. One thing is clear though; the Middle East won't be the same. The first successful religious movement popular uprising may not be the last one.

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