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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Like any major project, the enlargement of the Panama Canal would have its pros and cons, in terms of economic and of ecological impact. It would inevitably affect the real estate market in the country, both the residential and the commercial. What to expect in terms of market development by the time the enlargement is completed in 2015 and even after that? Are all consequences unequivocally positive, or there may be some drawbacks, at least in short-term?

The Panama Canal put the country on the big world political map. Without it, let's face it, Panama today would have been a quite different country. Perhaps there wouldn't been Panama at all, still remaining a province of Colombia like during most of the 19th century. But the Canada does exist and the country isn't the same as it was before it. It's a world player much more important than its mere economic share would otherwise suggest. By representing the easiest and the cheapest trade road between the Atlantic and the Pacific (almost all developed nations are bordering at least one of these two oceans), Panama is sure that any major event happening on its territory suddenly becomes a global issue.

If Panama today is in a sense a product of the Canal, then any enlargement will have to bring more of the same for Panama, more cargo traffic, more investments, more investors, more workers, more warehouses, more trade, and more prosperity. This is the rosy side of the Canal enlargement; in fact, this is the argument put forth by the government and approved by the population on a national referendum in 2006. Following this argument, Panama will become even more attractive destination for international capital flows, and the population will reap the benefits of this growing interest almost without making any extra efforts.

Like everything in this world, however, the Canal enlargement has its reverse side. According to this counterargument, it was precisely the incapacity of the canal to manage some very large cargos that demanded building large warehouses on both sides of the Canal, thus pushing ahead the economic development of the country. The Canal itself can bring money that can be used wisely or not; the investments that went with the Canal because its capacity was insufficient, actually turned the country into major regional trade point, like Hong Kong or Singapore in their early years. Following this counterargument, the Canal enlargement would allow all of the traffic to pass through, thus eliminating the need of warehouse facilities. Panama might repeat the fate of cities that went down because they were bypassed by the large trade flows.

Both arguments speak truth to some degree, or to some time frame in the future. The positive argument describes well what might happen in short-term (before the enlargement is accomplished by 2015). The pessimistic counterargument might materialize after 2015. If the optimistic short-term scenario is almost inevitable, the pessimistic mid-term scenario can be avoided. Hong Kong and Singapore managed to escape the curse and to become some of the most advanced economies in the world despite the alternatives available in the region. Montreal could diversify its economy and regain to a degree its positions despite the Atlantic seaway that bypassed it to the benefit of Toronto and of the industrial Mid-West.

Country profile:

• Population - 3.2 million (July 2007 est.)
• Area - 78,200 sq. km
• Life expectancy - 75.19 years
• Spoken languages - Spanish and English (15%), many Panamanians are bilingual.
• History -
  • Independence from Columbia in 1903;
  • Panama Canal opened in 1914;
  • Agreement to transfer the Canal from the United States to Panama in 1977;
  • United States invaded Panama and deposed the dictator Manuel Noriega in 1989;
  • Panama took complete control on the Canal Zone on 31 December 1999.
  • Work began on the expansion of the Canal in 2007; the project is to be completed by 2015.

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