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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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29 June 2007

Peru: A moderate left turn

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Since the last time we paid a visit to Peru, the left-wing politician Alan Garcia took the presidential office. This fact isn't surprising given the political trends that mark Latin America since some time. On the regional political spectrum, this left turn is rather moderate. There isn't radical rhetoric as in Venezuela. Capitalist economy is supposed to work hand-in-hand with more socially oriented redistribution schemes. The economy, boosted by higher international prices on main export commodities, is already paying its share in the national welfare. The radical left, however, already shows signs of impatience. As far as the economy is moving well, this alternative will remain rather marginal. The real problems may start when the demand for Peru's export jewels recedes.

Two main factors determine in short-term the Peru's development. One of them is the economic capacity to overcome the traditional way of life and move the entire country into modernity. In respect to this, the timing has never been more suitable since 1960s and early 1970s. The world demand for the main Peruvian export commodities, copper, gold, and zinc, is booming. New players, think about China, offer seemingly endless possibilities of export growth. Older generations of readers probably remember similar public mood that distinguished 30 years following the World War II. Not surprisingly, countries blessed with significant natural wealth without corresponding industrial capacity bet on ever-increasing international demand, and make their investment and social strategies according to these higher expectations. Thanks to this economic bonanza Peruvian economy has grown by almost 9 percent in 2006.

Second factor that determines the fate of Peru is the moderate left experiment that started a year ago. Instead of throwing money indiscriminately, the current president Alan Garcia tries to improve the decaying main infrastructures, e.g. water connections, sanitation and roads, and to create them from scratch where they don't exist. The goal isn't so much to provide money directly to the people, but to increase the value and the quality of the labor, thus indirectly raising the social welfare. Peru is a country of serious regional economic contrasts. By investing in regional infrastructures, the government is trying to eliminate this disparity. These initiatives, however, are designed not to endanger the macroeconomic stability of the country. This is precisely the litmus test that differentiates the moderate from radical left strategies.

The cracks between the government and some radical left movements are already present. The ruling moderate left party APRA of the president Garcia fared poorly, losing most of its positions during the municipal and regional elections last November. Until the economy is booming and the government keeps its promises of investing significant money in infrastructure projects, until then the radical left alternative will remain rather marginal. This, however, may quickly change if the international demand for Peruvian commodities subsides. This may look a distant reality in times when China, and soon India, is increasingly looking for import commodities. It, however, shouldn't be completely ruled out if the recent economic history can be used as a textbook.

Country profile:
  • Area: 1,285,220 sq. km
  • Population: 28.6 million (July 2007 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 1.3% (2007 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 70.14 years
  • Main ethnic groups:
    • Amerindian 45%,
    • mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 37%,
    • white 15%
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $6,600 (2006 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 54% (2003 est.)
  • Main trade partners: US, China, and some Latin America countries.
  • Debt external: $27.9 billion (2006 est.)
  • Internet users: 4.6 million (2005)
(Source: CIA World Factbook 2007, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Peru.

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