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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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17 January 2006

Will Peru be next?

© 2006, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Is Peru going to be the next example in Latin America of democratically elected left national populism? If yes, is this a reason for panic, or is just part of a regular movement from more traditional to more modern societies in some Central and South American countries? My point is that such shifts toward populist and nationalistically oriented policies should be expected as plans B in several societies. Many of those living in the South have been artificially kept back away from modernization by their social and political elites. We shouldn't consider only one set of possible tools for fast modernization. When after decades of unsuccessful experiments one people tries something different, we shouldn't panic as far as the mechanisms for democratic alteration are preserved and the voice of opposition isn't silenced. In genuine democracy as well as in real market economy the rules should be constant, not the outcomes. As far as the democratic rules are left intact, any political alteration in Peru should be more welcomed instead of feared.

Only the very bad image of its neighbor Colombia makes Peru disappear from the screen of world criminal headlines. A close look however shows that this country is by no means a paradise for tourists despite its real historic and archeological treasures, just to name Machu Picchu and Cusco. Violence is prevalent to the degree that many local persons take it as something normal, hence they react so vehemently every time some outside observer points out at this and other unpleasant facts of their everyday life. This violence has deep social roots, some of them, but not limited to, are the poverty and the discriminatory policies toward some ethnic groups. The result is public cynicism and lack of trust toward government despite the good grades given by the international organization Freedom House on political and civic liberties during the last 3-4 years.

The presidential election scheduled for this spring may give the power to rhetorically left leaning former army colonel and former failed military coup leader Ollanta Humala. Even if he fails to get the supreme executive power he has already poisoned the political air by making the other candidates shift toward more radical nationalist and populist programs. On the surface all this looks surprisingly similar to Venezuela, and despite the lack of big oil, Peru looks very similar to the country of Chavez in what regards its social backwardness and traditional political inability to have things done for the general population satisfaction. This lack of oil may be a double-edged sword, however. It may deter any populist regime from openly challenging the United States, but on the other hand, it may become a tool for Venezuela to manipulate the local society in need of economic development by promising cheap energy in times of expensive oil.

Whatever the political outcome this spring is, it would be extremely ill-advised for the Untied States to try to interfere by picking publicly one or another candidate. The time isn't appropriate for foreign political adventures. Many Latin America countries, those who have failed to do it so far, should be allowed to find their particular ways of modernization regardless of political colors and ideological background. A good example for such plurality in the means is China, which has failed to modernize for quite long time under imperial, nationalist and Maoist leadership, and which has finally found its proper way since 1979. As long as Peru can make it while preserving democratic procedures, the West should not fear their outcomes.

Country profile:
  • Area: 1,285,220 sq. km
  • Population: 28 million (July 2005 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 1.36% (2005 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 69.53 years
  • Main ethnic groups:
    • Amerindian 45%,
    • mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 37%,
    • white 15%
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $5,600 (2001 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 54% (2003 est.)
  • Main trade partners: US, EU countries, Latin America countries, and China.
  • Debt external: $29.8 billion (2004 est.)
  • Internet users: 4.6 million (2005)
(Source: CIA World Factbook 2005, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Peru.

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