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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Last Christmas we took Poland as an example of a country that went against the real estate market mainstream of former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe. After years of booming residential sector during the 1990's, the prices between 2001 and 2003 experienced a short period of painful corrections, leading to drastic slashes in new developments. In 2003 alone the new residential units delivered on the market have been decreased by almost 40%. Since the beginning of 2004 the market picture has changed dramatically. The prices are up again, 25% in the capital city Warsaw alone. The average price of residential properties in Warsaw is standing at $1,100/sq.meter, with the new developments sold for $1,200-1,400/sq.meter. In the city center the luxurious apartments are sold for up to $3,000/sq.meter. On the other hand, the investment yields have dropped to 9-11% throughout Poland, the lowest marks since early 1990's.

When it comes to long-term forecasts, the market optimists point out at the fact that Poles still enjoy 30% of the average living space in the EU. They too mention the fact that more than 20% of all Poles are still living in the countryside. A process of mass migration toward the larger urban areas can push up the prices. Pessimists, on the other hand, point out at the still lower incomes in Poland, reaching barely 50% of the EU average.

To make market progress sustainable, Poland has to solve its endemic budget deficit problem. Otherwise recent strong economic performances will push up the inflation and the interest rates, making harder obtaining mortgage loans, which are the engine behind the residential real estate development since late 1990's. Right now the inflation warnings are moderate, but another year of deficit can change the whole picture for worse. To make situation more predictable and manageable, the leftist government has begun introducing pensions reform, limiting the budget expenditures' rises. A strong political reaction is predictable but there is simply not too many other options left in order to keep the deficit which is now almost at 6% within EU-prescribed frame of 3% of the GDP.

Poland country profile:

• Area: 312,685 sq km
• Population: 38.6 million (July 2004 est.)
• Population growth rate: 0.02% (2004 est.)
• Net migration rate: -0.49 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2004 est.)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $11,000 (2003 est.)
• Labor force by occupation: industry 22.1%, agriculture 27.5%, services 50.4% (1999)
• Main trading partners: EU countries.
• Internet users: 8.88 million (2002)

(CIA - The World Factbook 2004)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Poland.