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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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'Polish plumber': hamster or stork?Let's face the facts. East European part of the European Union (EU) has been deserted by up to 2 million people during the last 30 months. Up to a half of those came from Poland. More than a half of those who moved west settled down in Britain and Ireland. At least some of them, probably more than a half, would never go back. This process of mass migration in Europe, unprecedented in time of peace, would go into higher speed when Romania and Bulgaria join the EU in 2007 or 2008. The consequences will be felt in both donating and hosting societies. These consequences include changed demographics, changed social structures, and changed real estate market supply-demand ratio. For purpose of simplification and because of the widespread popularity, we call all members of this new migration wave 'polish plumbers', understanding well that many of them are neither one nor the other.
Why people move out? And who moves?Before going to the process itself and to its consequences let's first elaborate more on the issue of why people migrate en mass even 15 years after the collapse of communism? The facts show that up to 90% of all from the most recent wave of migrants are 35 year old or younger. This means this is the first generation maturing during the post-communism. Even the oldest among them know little about Solidarity movement, the martial law, and shortages, and this most probably only through history books or from their parents and other older family members. Instead what they have really experienced is an economic deprivation of a different kind, very low salaries, and lack of basic stability for the future. In Poland the society has also experienced very significant Catholic Church influence in everything from family planning to public morality.The social profile of those who move is very diverse. Given the disparity in economic status between the people in Eastern and Western parts of the EU almost everyone outside the state power structures may be tempted to move out. The levels of education, foreign language skills, and family income aren't the main explanation. People move en mass from high-skilled professions like medical doctors to some very low-skilled like land laborers. All of them may expect to find similar jobs in Britain or in other rich EU countries with up to 10 times higher incomes. Even those who have to abandon their high social status may still find the change to be worth the costs.
Where all these people are coming from?Only the richest post-communist EU members now seem partly immune to mass emigration. Populations like Slovenia's expecting to catch up with the EU top economies within approximately 20 years or even less may find changing countries less tempting than those who won't catch up within their lifetimes. Poland is one of those countries where population wants to get as much as possible from the life right now. Besides it has relatively large population with every economic incentive to move out. On the lowest social levels almost all East European countries contain marginalized ethnic groups, think Roma, predisposed to move out. Significant reservoir of migrants can be found in many partly rural communities. The strict EU regulations make it almost impossible for those rural communities to survive modernity. Thus millions of economic 'losers' have only one way up, and this way leads out.Having on board even poorer countries containing significant rural population and problematic minorities like Romania and Bulgaria will only accelerate the process of mass migration. It's hard to predict any exact numbers. So far post-EU accession migration has proven all predictions wrong. Nobody has calculated the emulation effect of migration, people who have no particular economic reasons to move are moving because everyone from their social milieu is moving too.
ConsequencesThere will be serious consequences for societies both donating and accepting mass migration. Accepting societies must move quickly to integrate their new members. As an old proverb says, nothing is more difficult than the first migration. Those who move today, e.g. from Poland to Britain, may be tempted tomorrow to move to Spain, or to Italy, or to France, or to go back to Poland. Some will remain 'hamsters' digging and building their new lives in one particular society; others will act like 'storks' moving from point A to point B without strong attachments to any of them. Britain, or Ireland for that matter, now solve many economic problems by importing people, but without their strong and long-term attachments these problems may reappear again sooner than most predict.Mass migration imposes additional pressure on the hosting countries' infrastructure and social system. New schools and playgrounds are needed to accommodate migrants' children. Many new housing projects are needed to accommodate migrants' families. Country that thinks about these 'details' will benefit from the current migration not only in short-term, but also in long-term. The picture is very different in 'donating' societies where whole regions may be depopulated in a matter of years. They too however have to accommodate better those who remain and/or try to find alternative replacements coming from even poorer countries.
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