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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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And the winner is ... George W. Bush! Europeans can take a breath. Some of them, especially in the western part of the continent, have made their bets on both principle candidates. Thus the name of the winner for them wasn't the real issue. Western Europeans have worked well in the past with both Democrat and Republican residents of the White House.

The eventual victory of the Texas' governor and its consequences were taken into account during the recent months within the West European political and economic circles. The hot topics were already put on the table waiting for profound transatlantic discussions.

These topics include the EU plans of building an independent from NATO military structures, the American blueprint for national anti-missile defense system and several trade issues from the banana import into the EU to the state subsidies for the companies such as Boeing or Airbus.

There will always be unresolved issues between the USA and EU, but the main point to remember here is that West Europeans want to preserve their alliance with America. No matter how strong they could be on the "words front", they remain willing to negotiate, especially with Americans. That is their passion. For making concessions on one side they need to take something for compensation on the other. So the fruitful policy of the new American administration toward the EU can be the one of dialogue - if Washington wants concessions in some area, it has to be prepared to make concessions too.

Eastern Europe is a different story. Small and relatively poor countries in this region are waiting for American military protection but they don't have very much to offer to make this protection looks like a part of a deal of equals. They understand their inferior position toward the USA so they are scared that the new American administration will turn its back to their aspirations. Some of them have already become NATO members - Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary, but the real security problems aren't related with these countries. The major concerns come from Russia and its ambitions to put under political control as much as it can from the former Soviet Union*. There are countries like Belarus that will accept to return in the Russian realm. But there are others like Georgia or Ukraine that won't accept this without struggle. In this case the new administration in Washington has to declare some sort of barrier beyond which Russian expansionist aspirations will collide with the American wish to protect its partners and friends in Eastern Europe. Without such policy of containment the international credibility of Washington may suffer badly.

So we are approaching the most difficult chapter of the European policy of the new US administration. The major issue is what to do with Russia? This kind of questions was put and received already an answer after the World War II. Then America and Britain preferred to keep Russians away from the rich European continental countries and not to risk to lose everything in the name of poorer relatives in Eastern Europe. Now the countries at stake are different - Ukraine instead of Poland and Estonia instead of Hungary, but the point is largely the same. Will America and its allies allow Russia to gain control on countries that prefer to look westward? Will economic benefits from the trade with Russia be considered more important than the liberties in the small and poor countries like Georgia for example?

There is a growing optimism about the coming US foreign policy under Bush regarding Russia. The proof for this is that the Russian government almost openly (through its newspapers) backed Al Gore. Moscow sees in Bush election a threat of new Cold War that Russia can't win because of the lack of resources.

* These days a poll made among the Russians has shown that 55% of them want that former Russian Empire or former Soviet Union be restored.

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