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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Russian president Vladimir Putin started his second term in office. After making his country "managed democracy", meaning undemocratic system under the mask of elected institutions, he can look with more confidence toward his political future. There are no more checks and balances to limit his personal power. The only real limit is his inability to make the economy work, as during the late years of communism the state coffers depend largely on foreign petrodollars. Even more than in the 1980's Russia lags technologically behind the West. As in 1917 and 1991 the end of this regime may come sooner than many believe.

Putin has ruled Russia since late 1999 when he became prime minister alongside the ailing president Boris Yeltsin. After more than 4 years in office he still continues to be perceived as enigmatic leader even if some of his ideas have been clearly demonstrated during his years in Kremlin. He reduced the freedom of speech to matters outside the high politics. He reduced the role of constitutional checks and balances to a mere democratic mask beneath which he rules indiscriminately. Big corporations are no match for the state prosecution firmly under his control. Although being in no way a modern version of totalitarian state, his regime is almost as far from the western norms of democracy as most left or rightwing military juntas. Putin likes stability, meaning to have as much as possible levers under his control. If he can choose the future, for his country and for himself, he will opt for four more years like those, which we already have seen in the past under his leadership.

What is especially important to know is that Putin enjoys almost unequal popular support matched only by the former communist leader Leonid Brezhnev in the 1970's. If there are political repressions of any kind, they concern only those few who have chosen to challenge openly the regime. For anyone else the regime offers more stability, more social protection, less freedom but also less worries. People don't ask how Putin makes it to manage the country that seemed to be in so desperate situation only 5-6 years ago. If someone asks, Putin is here to give some easy answers that flatter the ears of the ordinary citizens. He says what people want to hear, so it's not surprising that they continue to want him to rule.

The facts about present-day Russia are not flattering at all. Everything that was made during Putin's reign, everything that was made possible was due to the higher export prices of oil and natural gas. The situation was exactly the same in later 1970's and early 1980's, the "Golden age" of the Soviet communism. Just years before the tsarist regime collapsed in 1917 Russia was again bathing in western, mostly French money. The political collapses in both cases came suddenly, without any advanced notice. The regimes that stood so firmly were washed away after losing their financial base. Putin, in search for stability, ready to please the public, didn't use at least some of these hundreds of billions extra dollars in order to diversify the Russian economy and its export. If oil prices go down to the level of 1998, the Russian economy will be as unprepared as it was 6 years ago. This will bring down the real estate prices that go in parallel with the oil prices; this will probably again bring default on foreign debts; this will make Russia as unstable and unpredictable as it was during the Yeltsin's presidency.

In fact a new economic downturn that will follow the oil market fluctuations will be more difficult to manage for Russia than during the 1990's. The authoritarian regime doesn't leave many alternative options in time of crisis. It's good on some things like pretending to keep stability, although the reason for stability lies outside the regime. It's bad on everything else, especially on changing the course between the time of stability and time when radical reforms are needed. By making people believe that stability is his main virtue, it will be difficult for Putin to abandon this mask in times of trouble. The communists also were slow on getting reforms started in the 1980's because their only political legitimacy remained on stability, i.e. on doing nothing.

It's difficult to say what will exactly happen in Russian in the next 4 years. It was easier to make similar predictions 4 years ago. During his first term in office we predicted that Putin will limit the freedom, which he actually did, and also that he will attack the weak base of private property, which he also did. Now when he is an authoritarian leader his own political future depends not on his ability to manage the situation, but on market forces, which are largely outside his control. More years of expensive oil will bring more years of stability for Russia. Sudden crash for any reason will lead to a period of political and economic instability.

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