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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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3 January 2005

Romania: First, Second and Third waves of post-communist revolutions

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Romania made the political shift we were predicting in our last analysis* and hopefully the country will move ahead quickly to join the European Union by 2007. This shift clearly shows that the former communist block countries have moved at different speed toward their democratic consolidation. One day, we hope sooner rather than later, the post-communist history of the region will be regarded not as one wholesale transition from authoritarianism to democracy but rather as several succeeding waves of democratization encompassing large period of several decades with no clear outcome for some countries till the very last moment.

The people of Romania elected Traian Basescu as their new president, an institution that has substantial powers under the country's constitution. Ion Iliescu who ruled the country 11 out of 15 years following the communist regime demise, is going to say not just farewell to the politics but also farewell to the political model he tried so hard to implement. Unlike the countries from East-Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary) that cut gradually but decisively their links with the communist past, the former high-ranking officials from some Balkan region countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania) and from other countries like Slovakia, tried to marry the formal political democracy with their monopoly on political power.

If the first wave of democratization ended by mid-1990s, it took the second wave another 5-10 years in order to break this new form of unaccomplished democratization. For some countries like Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia this time the try was more successful. Some of them are expected to join the EU by 2007; others like Croatia are lining up to be invited to join the club in not so distant future. The second wave of democratization made the transition more painful instead of more socially acceptable. These countries or at least most of them look now not so attractive for the western investors. Instead of already reaping the fruits of their efforts, they will continue to lag behind the Central Europe in terms of quality of life.

Romania is particular case because in 1989 it was hoped in vain that after the bloody revolution its transition would be quick and radical. The president Iliescu then made what in reality was violent coup against the fragile democratic institutions by allowing thousands of miners to come to the capital city. They came, setting fire to some government buildings and forcing the reformist government to resign. Instead of consolidating democracy by mid-1990s, Romania had to wait for another decade. And the people had to pay for the mess.

In general the second-wave countries made it although with greater difficulties and economic sacrifices. Others like many former Soviet republics kept intact the mix of democratic and authoritarian elements; some regressed into overt forms of authoritarianism like Belarus and most of the Central Asian republics. The "rose revolution" in Georgia a year ago was the first sign that transition wasn't over and that new hopes existed even for those that failed their first and second chances. The "orange revolution" in Ukraine is the next sign. The problems with this third group come from the fact that almost all of them lie in the self-proclaimed Russian sphere of influence. The local bureaucratic opposition isn't the only obstacle. Russian geo-political interests put additional obstacles. For the foreign investors it should be salient when they determine the risks not just to look at the profits that one or another country offers, but also the level of consolidation of its democratic and market institutions.

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Romania.

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