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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Russia: Elite moves to plan "B"Moscow is the most expensive city in the world thanks to enormous influx of new investment capitals. Russian economy is doing remarkably well supported by high oil and gas prices. The Russian political and financial elite however isn't celebrating either of these indisputable achievements. With the second presidential term of Vladimir Putin approaching its end in early 2008, some have already decided to send permanently their families abroad. Political changes in Russia, even within one restricted circle, are merciless. Nobody wants to follow the road of failed oligarchs to Siberia. Russia for some may be a good place to do business, but even for them it isn't good place for making long-term residential plans. So many of them already elaborate their plans 'B', moving away from the country in times of trouble.
Putin more inclined to step asideAs the time of his second presidential mandate running out fast, Putin seems more and more inclined to step aside and to pass the reins of power to someone he may trust. The name of his trustee isn't known yet, but nobody doubts he will be a member of the Putin's inner circle where the tope candidates aren't more than half a dozen. Another options for Putin will be to seek third term in office, which will be unconstitutional. The constitution in Russia has never been big problem, but amending it will require some time nevertheless. If Putin opts for a third mandate it's time now to amend the constitution, because in the next year he may miss the element of surprise. If by the summer of 2007 he still hesitates naming clearly his successor, then we may expect some sort of blitz constitutional amendments allowing him third term in office.Another way for Putin to keep power beyond 2008 is to annex Belarus, or another former Soviet Union republic, and to run for president of this new united federation, which will have of course a new constitution, meaning the mandate clock may start running again for Putin from point zero. As far as Belarus is concerned, there are basically two scenarios for its annexation, peaceful and violent. The first requires some sort of accommodation for the current president of Belarus Lukashenko. The second requires his physical elimination. It may of course look like an accident. No matter what Putin decides to do finally, transferring power to a chosen successor, or seeking third term in office, or annexing Belarus, political 'earthquakes' of different magnitudes will follow any of these decisions. The current political elite in Moscow even without losing power may undergo substantial personal changes. In a country like Russia nobody knows exactly what his fate will look like, and the more power people have the more they may lose.
Exit strategies before it's too lateMany people in Russia nowadays feel almost exactly like those people gambling on the roulette tables. Their next move may double even triple their assets, but it may also lead to a financial collapse. Unlike roulette, people with big power in Russia win as long as they are allowed to play. The moment they are invited to quit the table they may be escorted not just outside the gambling room but also to the courtrooms. Everyone is remembering the fate of those invited to quit after Putin effectively took power in early 2000. Émigrés in the West or prisoners at home, nobody is willing to follow their paths.Russian's elite nervousness is seen nowadays in people's one-directional movement to the West. First they buy appropriate residences and settle part of their businesses abroad; then they acquire permanent residence for them and their families. The next logical steps are to have their families transferred abroad; then gradually transferring the business decision-making, and finally, when the worst fears materialize, these new oligarchs will have enough money to rule with remote control over their immense business empires. The geography of current exodus is without parallel in the modern Russian history in time of peace and economic prosperity. There are at least four different circles of migration destination depending on the financial capability of these new 'migrants'. The weakest ones chose to relocate to the so-called 'near abroad', in countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. More affluent chose to move to Eastern Europe, e.g. to Bulgaria or Cyprus. Third circle includes continental West European states like Spain or Italy. The top 'émigrés' prefer destinations like Britain, Canada, and the United States. Israel is a particular case offering safe heaven for people with particular ethnic background. As a matter of fact the distance from Russia plays important but twofold role. On the one hand, countries far away from Moscow have long history of and usually are the least inclined to fulfill Russian's court decisions regarding deporting back home the enemies of the current regime. On the other hand, however, these same countries offer the worst possible opportunities for managing over criminal business around the world. For this purpose settling in some former Soviet Union republic offers much better opportunities despite the bigger threats of deportation. Thus choosing where to settle depends not only on the financial position of each 'émigré', but also on their expectations whether and to what extent the Russian judicial system will be interested investigating their past activity.
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