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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Serbia is a textbook example of rotten post-communist transition, of how things shouldn't be done. Former communist elite kept the power up to the end of the 1990s, replacing internationalist with nationalist ideology. Economic modernization never took place. Interethnic and international relations were poisoned for a generation at least. Yugoslavia, which was a leading reformist country in communist Europe, broke down amidst ethnic wars. All Serbia's natural allies, e.g. Macedonia and Montenegro, to mention just a few, turned their backs away from Belgrade. Especially shameful for any Serb, nobody denies that, is that communist neighbors that began to reform much later, e.g. Bulgaria and Romania, are now both NATO and EU members.

For almost any European country with a political system similar to that of Serbia, a question who's winning and who's losing parliamentary elections may sound of relatively little importance regarding matters such as real estate and investment environment. They will still matter, but matters such as judicial system, formal bureaucracy procedures will play much more important role. In a country stuck in its post-communist transition, however, a matter such as the political ideology of the ruling elite gets additional significance. Wasn't it, after all, the different political ideology of Yeltsin and Putin that pushed Russia in different directions, both getting basically started from same institutional and economic preconditions? Without paying attention to the ideology of those who are in power in Belgrade, we won't be able to make good predictions regarding what will be coming to this country, and also to countries, those futures partially depend on it.

Two political coalitions, radically different in nature and purpose, are possible. Each of them may bring about far-reaching consequences, not only for Serbia, but also for other post-Yugoslav republics, such as Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. First possible coalition, the one the EU would like to see in office, unites moderate reformist forces around the President Tadic and more radical reformers of G17 with moderate nationalists of Kostunica. It was basically this coalition that made possible the fall of Milosevic in 2000. Another possible coalition, the one that the EU doesn't want to see at any cost, unites moderate nationalists with hard-liner nationals. First type of coalition may use as a common denominator the existing popular demands for accelerating EU integration. The second possible coalition may unite the Serbs around the rejection of giving independence to Kosovo.

The question about the future of Kosovo becomes an apple of discord between the West and Russia. It seems that after years of disagreements on this issue, the West is finally sharing a common position that Kosovo should become an independent country, with NATO troops providing security protection for the Serbian minority. Russia opposes any new change in international borders; Moscow has hopes that this thorny issue may give it new leverage in Serbian political life after some years of Russian absence from this country.

Regarding a new EU-enlargement that may include Serbia, the chances of success are rather slim for many years. Brussels officially isn't ready for more members before existing member states agree on constitutional reforms. In addition, Serbia is more difficult case because of its political legacies of 1990s. The EU may wish to see a pro-EU coalition in power in Belgrade, but Brussels can only make some very vague promises about possible accession in long-term. Regarding the Kosovo issue, Serbia has, in fact, already lost this region. Only a miracle can return it to Serbia, but miracles don't happen too often; it isn't safe to make a bet on it.

Any of these two coalitions is possible; it's possible also to see moderate nationals forming a coalition with some partners now, and changing alliance later. There is, hypothetically, a possibility to see the current stalemate prevail for the next years; with neither political bloc being able to impose a clear new direction for development; with EU membership remaining only a good wish, and Kosovo's status still undefined. In this case, Serbia will lose more precious years and the gap between it and its neighbors will only grow wider.

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