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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Slovakia is economically among the best performing EU nations. For this year alone, the economic growth can reach almost 10%, far above the EU average, and significantly above the Central and East European average. These spectacular outcomes have roots in the economic policy of the previous liberal government, the one that was evicted from office a year ago. The new ruling coalition isn't a bad economic manager, as far as it doesn't make any sudden moves. The foreign investors can be assured of its good intentions. At the same time, it cannot betray its populist ideology of trying to cheat the market mechanisms. This "Italian' model of development may represent the Slovakian path of modernization in the context of post-communist modernization and Europeanisation.

Slovakia is still far behind the richest European countries in terms of GDP per capita. And, yet, its economic growth is quite impressive, around 10% for most of this year, with still no signs of abating due to domestic or external factors. As for the reason of this success, many point out at the introduction in 2004 of the flat corporate tax that coupled with relatively cheap labor and relatively low transportation expenses to Western Europe markets, attracted billions of dollars of investments in industries such as cars, electronics and other specialized machinery. Korean Hyundai and Japanese Sony by investing more than billion dollars each helped creating industrial pools of sub-contracting industries, thus pushing the country on the economic fast truck. It's hard to imagine that the local government will kill voluntarily this economic manna, which makes a rather safe prediction regarding the bright economic development of the country.

The government will hardly stop this economic progress, but ideologically the parties that form the ruling coalition have problems in reconciling it with their populist slogans made before the 2006 elections. Growth itself doesn't generate higher living standard in post-communist countries. Sometimes the correlation is reverse. The economic system in these countries is still dominated by huge conglomerates, domestic or foreign, and the governments still can move significant resources in exchange for electoral favors. An 'Italian' model of economic development may replace the liberal visions of the previous government. On the surface, most indicators won't change, at least for a moment; at the end, however, only some financial indexes will betray the true nature of the economic model.

The 'Italian' model is the way this country became one of the richest in Europe and the world after the World War II. Certain big economic corporations by maintaining good relations with the government could operate in an excellent business-friendly environment, leaving to the politics the task to redistribute some wealth and keep lower classes in submission. The politicians could keep the social peace by borrowing money from the future generations. Italy now has to pay a debt of more than its nominal GDP. Slovakia may soon find the same easy way of dealing with social problems by borrowing from the future generations. Starting from no debt just 14 years ago, the country now has accumulated a third of the Italian debt controlled by its much smaller GDP.

The first sign that the things perhaps don't go the way they should be, will come two years from now, when the country expects to join the Eurozone. Unless it cuts drastically on the spending, or finds ways of increasing the revenues, Slovakia won't be able to qualify for this club within the EU. Cutting the spending or increasing the revenues may jeopardize the growth, but, ironically, not joining the Eurozone with its cheap credits, may also jeopardize the growth. Slovakia may be on the track of more good economic years, but 10%-growth will hardly be sustainable beyond this and the next year.

Slovakia Country Profile:

• Area: 48,845 sq km
• Population: 5.5 million (July 2007 est.)
• Ethnic groups: Slovak 85.8%, Hungarian 9.7%, Roma 1.7% (2001 census).
• Languages: Slovak (official), Hungarian
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $18,200 (2006 est.).
• Unemployment rate: 10.2% (2006 est.).
• Main trading partners: Germany, Czech Republic, Russia, Italy, Hungary, and Austria.
• Internet users: 2.5 million (2007 est.).

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2007; Reuters)

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