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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Former Soviet Union: risky for investorsThe eastern part of Eastern Europe, including all former Soviet Union domains except the three Baltic states, now part of the European Union, will offer less secure investment environment than the best performing East Central European states. It will offer less security than its former Baltic possessions and, what's surprising, even less than some well performing Balkan states. 2005 will be year of reckoning for Ukraine about the road to take. It will be also an important year for Russia where the president Putin will see his liberal supporters taking distance from his rule. If he wants to make his personal rule permanent after 2008, it's time to take steps well ahead. Small Caucasian republics will try to balance against or bandwagon with their former Russian masters. Looking at western part of Eastern Europe creates impression of a group of people trying to take on the same civilization train. Some are already inside the train and try to find better seats; some have already bought their tickets and sit in the waiting room to be called; some look for money to buy their tickets, and some still try to bribe the chief of the train. No such rush in the eastern part of the eastern half of the continent where Russia still tries to create alternative model for civilization development. Moscow obviously can't do this alone; it needs new satellites. The problem with the satellites is that some of them don't want to follow their former masters but at the same time are afraid of the consequences, political and economic. For the new foreign investors it may be useful to assess the relative security of each of these countries before making investment decisions.
RussiaSo far the president Putin had two main constituencies, the security apparatus, military plus former KGB apparatus, on the one hand, and some prominent liberal economists, on the other. This strange coalition survived the second Chechen War, the attacks against press freedom and other civil liberties, and the attacks against leading businessmen. Now there are signs that the liberals are trying to distance themselves from the president. They don't do it very loudly, because they would still prefer to influence the decision-making from their top positions instead of leaving the country at the mercy of former security agents. At the same time the security wing that supports Putin ever since 1999 keeps insisting on increasing the presidential powers. This may lead to overt dictatorship instead of "managed" democracy that at least retains some masquerade characteristics of electoral process. 2005 will be the year when Putin can still make U-turn, but this seems less and less likely. More probable scenario will be to see the liberals expelled from the government and less covered dictatorship with or without Putin finally imposed on the country. For the foreign investors it won't be a good year except if they enjoy some legal immunity and personal connections with the government.
BelarusThe current dictator Lukashenko will continue its policy of preventing political revolution that can topple his regime. Without any other means to influence the politics the opposition won't have any other option left short of revolution. Revolution is usually very costly business, and that's why they happen so rarely. In times of relative economic stability and strict political and security control over population the revolution is highly unlikely. Without all these factors on the table the chances for political opening increase enormously. Lukashenko is clever player and he'll try to make impossible any common ground for the opposition forces except his own removal. 2005 from now looks like a quiet year for this dictator. He's still too young to have under control the situation and after the Ukrainian events it's unlikely that the only factor that really can make a difference, Russia, will be used against him. For the foreign investors this may be a good year if they happen to have personal connections with Lukashenko. The problems may come one day if the Lukashenko's successors decide not to honor his investment guarantees.
UkraineDespite the revolution of 2004 it's still not clear who will be laughing last in Kiev. The balance of forces isn't overwhelmingly in favor of the West and some regions are clearly pro-Russian. Despite this uncertainty it seems that the country is moving toward Europe, making Russia less stable and more willing to replay the old anti-western rhetoric. In the political field 2005 is expected to look like fragile balance between these two international directions and these two internal forces. In economic plan the high level of uncertainty will deter the investors except two groups: those who love playing in such risky environment and those who look for long-term profits and don't mind having year or two working on red.
Smaller republics (Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan)The position of these countries will remain shaky. They are literally trapped by the regional confrontation between Russia, on one side, and the United States, Europe and Turkey, on the other. Some of them are pro-Russian (Armenia), other two are pro-Western (Moldova, Georgia) with substantial territories occupied by pro-Russian forces; the remaining one (Azerbaijan) tries to balance with one quarter of its territory occupied by Armenia backed by Russia. The highest possible level of international political uncertainty in all four countries defies any scientific prediction. Any one of them may be turned within weeks into international hot spot by the whim of Kremlin. Except Azerbaijan in case of war between the United States and Iran none of them have any substantial strategic significance for the West to make worth military confrontation with Moscow. Some of them although have some economic assets (oil and gas, pipelines) that may be used as life insurance policy. The foreign investors, except strongly backed by major powers, should avoid these territories.
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