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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions).

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.

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10 March 2008

Spain: Economy at the center

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

The Spanish socialists won parliament election for second consecutive term. The economy and the public finances go so well that it would have been unfair not to give the ruling party some credit for this. The economy, however, can make shortly a sudden downturn, and the real estate market may suffer accordingly, after more than 2 decades of unstoppable progress. The government, however, has some secret weapons to make up for some more years of economic prosperity. Being a Eurozone member is among the reasons why Spain, doing so well in the recent past, may still hope to keep going faster than the other big European nations.

The ruling Socialists of Jose Zapatero won parliament election for second consecutive term. Four years ago, their first victory came shortly after the bloodiest terrorist attack on Spanish soil, killing almost 200 people. Not surprisingly, the then ruling Popular Party lost the election. The new Socialist government took Spain out of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, and focused on domestic issues such as the economy. The economy in Spain, by the way, is doing quite well compared to most other West European countries. From approximately a half of the GNP per capita of the biggest four EU members at the time of the EU accession in 1986, Spain now has reached parity with them. Some credit for this should be given to both the Socialist and the Popular party while in office.

The fact that Spain is again among the richest countries in Europe shouldn't be taken as a big surprise. In fact, the periods when it wasn't among the richest lands in Europe for the past 2 thousand years are rather exceptional. It was considered important enough to put against each other Rome and Cartage; it was among the richest Roman provinces, and for a thousand years after the fall of Rome it was again among the richest lands in Europe, either under Muslim or under Christian rules. Between the second half of the 15th c. and the beginning of the 17th c. it was, no doubt, the European superpower before the term. It was so powerful that it took a large coalition of all protestant nations plus France plus some Muslim powers to contain it before reaching full control over Europe. So, the rise of Spain among the richest nations in Europe should be taken as something normal.

The question, however, is whether the country can maintain its momentum in a time when economic woes are spreading in Europe and across the Atlantic? The country has for quite some time been very dependent for its economic progress on the real estate market development, which was quite extraordinary during the last 20 years or so. Some regions are already reporting falling prices and reduced construction activity. For some months the unemployment is rising again, and the largest trading partners of Spain in Europe cannot provide enough demand for its local manufacturers.

Fortunately enough, the Spanish government has some secret weapons to use against the economic slowdown. One of them is the budget surplus of more than 2 percent of the GDP, an enormous pool of fresh money that can be spent for large infrastructure projects; these projects can increase the value of the land and, consecutively, create additional interest in real estate developments around the country. Another secret weapon is the inflation. Spain isn't the largest country within the Eurozone; therefore its local inflation cannot affect greatly the inflation within the entire zone. Since the introduction of the Euro, the European Central Bank has been persistently more severe in persecuting the members that overspend than the members that cannot control the inflation levels. Being so good when it comes to the budget spending, Spain can allow itself being more liberal on the inflation front.

Spain will hardly be among the countries with highest economic growth and best performing real estate market in the years to come, but definitely it has several options to soften the economic problems that stand on its way ahead.

Spain country profile:
  • Area: 504,782 sq km.
  • Population: 40.5 million (July 2007 est.)
  • Net migration rate: 0.99 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 79.78 years.
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $33,700 (2007 est.)
  • Main trading partners: Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, and UK. Internet users: 18.6 million (2007)
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2008; Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Spain.

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