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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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It seems that the next major target to experience political changes may be Syria. This time it hardly will imply a massive military intervention like Iraq. It will rather involve putting a diplomatic pressure on Damascus by compelling it to withdraw from Lebanon. This time the main western powers will work in close coordination. At stake is the survival of one of the oldest authoritarian regimes in the region. That makes the stakes so high for many and first of all for the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. New international players are ready to become part of the regional puzzle taking one or another side in order to improve their global standing.

After listening to the president Bush State of the Union address, I was thinking about the demonstration effect the Iraqi elections would have on its neighbors. In the time most observers were looking at Iran as a possible new target I was thinking about one much easier target, Syria, which not only being easier but also being an Arab country (Iraq is predominantly a Persian country) could have a much grater demonstration effect on the states located between Morocco and the Arabian peninsula.

If what I consider to be the most probable scenario is in fact what the official policy of the United States and other countries are supposed to be in the coming years, then we should expected the following events:

1. Pressure to withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. The Syrian troops have stayed in Lebanon since 1976 for the obvious reasons to increase the Syrian political leverage in the Lebanese civil war. This war is officially over for more than a decade but the foreign troops are still there. For some time the explanation was to counterbalance the Israeli military presence in Southern Lebanon. In fact the Israelis could take Damascus very easy having access to the Lebanese territory. It's almost 5 years since Israel withdrew its forces, but the Syrians are still there. This time the reason they give is that the legitimate Lebanese government asks them to stay. It's difficult to check this claim because a country under a partial occupation can hardly be free enough to express itself.
2. Warming of the relations between the U.S. and France. Nowhere like Lebanon Washington and Paris can play together. They both want Lebanon to be free and independent. France wants it because of its traditional influence among some of its population. The United States wants it in order to secure the northern borders of Israel and to press Syria. The good news for both Paris and Washington is that they can get what they want simultaneously. France is more interested in the domestic policy of Lebanon, the U.S. in the foreign dimensions of the independence. Together they can press Damascus to withdraw.
3. Syria can't stand for this coordinated activity without being patronized by Russia. Damascus was once a client state of the USSR, then in 1990 it decided to tilt toward the United States in order to keep its possessions in Lebanon, now it again looks to Moscow to balance against the West. This deal is made in highly unequal terms for both sides. Syria in fact has no other patron to choose from. For Moscow Syria is just one of the possible clients to show teeth to the Americans. Once Putin decides he has taken enough from Washington, he can leave Assad alone against its worst nightmares.
4. Considering its weak position, Damascus won't reject the western pressure but will instead try to postpone the inevitable military withdrawal. The hidden reason will be that by the time the Americans discover that the Syrian promises were false the president Bush won't have enough time till the end of his term to organize more convincing diplomatic offense. And the next American president can just change the international priorities and return to more traditional real-politic means.
5. Considering the points 1-4 the West won't waste any time before we see a diplomatic campaign against Syria in order to press it to withdraw immediately from Lebanon. This withdrawal will be considered only as first step toward a regime change in Damascus. This regime change will make an Israel-Arab general deal almost inevitable, if such deal isn't reached earlier. Having Iraq, Syria and, of course, Lebanon as models for political change, Washington will press the other Arab countries to follow suit. This scenario has to be implemented within the second 4-year term. So we must see the first "salvos" of the struggle very soon.

Syria country profile:

• Area: 185,180 sq km
• Population: 18.0 million (July 2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 69.71 years
• Ethnic groups: Arab 90.3%, Kurds, Armenians, and other 9.7%
• Religions: Sunni Muslim 74%, Alawite, Druze, and other Muslim sects 16%, Christian (various sects) 10%
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $3,300 (2003 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 20%
• Exports commodities: crude oil and petroleum products
• Main trading partners: Germany, Italy, and France.
• Internet users: 220,000 (2004)

(Source: CIA The World Factbook 2004)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Syria.