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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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5 Reasons China won't Attack TaiwanChina recently passed a law granting itself the right to attack Taiwan if it declared independence. Beijing obviously considers the independence in its "de jure" form, because "de facto" Taiwan is an independent country for more than 5 decades. Many governments, except that of Russia, reacted to this law as if it represented a major shift in the Chinese foreign policy. Is Beijing just shifting gear or is it going to invade the island that is under control of anti-communist forces for more than half a century? Are some western official concerns real or a bit exaggerated? Out perception is that there are many reasons why China shouldn't attack Taiwan. The main audience for this law is within, not outside China. China won't attack Taiwan because that may lead to a war between Beijing and Washington. Even if by some miracle China wins and occupies Taiwan, the costs will by far exceed any expected benefit. The Chinese economy will be ruined by U.S. economic embargo against the most developed coastal areas. China will have the resource backing of Russia, but most of its foreign markets will be lost. China won't attack Taiwan because that may inflict major damages to the Taiwanese economy even in case of Chinese military victory. The economic importance of Taiwan for China has gradually increased over the time and its symbolic significance has diminished. Taiwan is an important part of the world economy and finances. As a ruined economy it will represent more a liability than an asset for China. China won't attack Taiwan because even without a major war and even without economic devastation of the island China will lose major transit supplier of foreign investments. It isn't a secret that some of the western investments that go to China do this through Taiwan. With the island occupied by Beijing Taiwan will lose this important economic and financial role. China won't attack Taiwan because that will unite the West against it instead of playing with the Europeans against the Americans. Beijing is expecting to have the European arms ban lifted shortly. What an unpleasant gift to the Chinese friends in Europe will be any tension between Beijing and Taiwan! China won't attack Taiwan, at least won't do it soon, because of the Olympic Games 3 years from now and because of the many other sweet awards the West is ready to give China, such as organizing world technological expositions or offering a seat in the G-8, in order to make it peaceful at least for the next 10-15 years. Given all these reasons explaining why China won't attack Taiwan, the question is why China threatens to invade the island by passing such hostile law? The Chinese President Hu Jintao who has gradually taken over the supreme power from the former head of state Jiang Zemin, is still in a process of consolidating its power. Among many different power holders in China, the army is by far one of the most important ones. In 1989 it was the army that decided finally which of the conflicting communist factions will prevail by suppressing the student demonstrations in Beijing. It isn't a secret that the army today looks jealously at the capitalist development in China, which makes the country go away from the ideological dogmas, the reason-to-be for the "people's army". It isn't a secret that the army has been under funded for many years in order to save resources for promoting the economic growth. With the communist bureaucrats going capitalist by taking share of the "new way of production" the army which is also a major economic player sees the opportunity to confront the political leadership as not enough communist, meaning not enough confrontational to the "world imperialism". The Chinese political leadership that has no particular reasons of attacking anyone because the costs will be too much and far more significant than any possible benefit has to appease somehow the army. The two simultaneous tactics are used in this direction: to increase gradually the military spending without alarming the United States, and to intensify the belligerent rhetoric without going too far. Such tactics won't be enough to scare Washington who (let's hope it) is well aware of the domestic reasons for such apparent escalation in rhetoric. Many Chinese neighbors although aren't aware. Some of them may begin panicking, and the fact that at least some of them (incl. Taiwan) are American clients may start an unnecessary escalation of confrontation in the region. In any case, the sudden escalations are the exact time when politicians do unreasonable things.
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