|
Archived Articles  Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions). He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.
Global Real Estate Project
|
 |
Taiwan: Two roads, three roads...Until very recently it seemed Taiwan had basically two roads ahead: independence from China risking war or reunification with China by exporting its democratic elite as ruling authority for the whole country. The first option is defended by the now ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the second by the former ruling party Kuomintang (KMT). As the time goes on a third road seems much more possible, namely Taiwan been incorporated into China on terms similar or even more generous to those given to Hong Kong. KMT is better prepared to follow this road; the problem is that it must wait until its candidate is elected as president of Taiwan. Taiwan seceded from China in 1949 after a bloody civil war. For decades the ruling party KMT didn't recognize either officially or unofficially the Chinese communists as legitimate rulers in Beijing. On the other hand, Beijing still considers Taiwan as renegade province and threatens with use of force to restore control over it. For decades KMT considered itself as the only legitimate Chinese government, meaning they claimed to represent China and hoped someday to return to Beijing as political leaders. This may have been possible during the Cold War, especially before 1970s, when China and Taiwan represented two completely different social, political and economic systems, and when Taiwan could count on the military and political support from the West. With the economic transformation in China this first road becomes less and less plausible. We expect that China will begin at some point to move toward more democratic political regime. Economically and technologically China is gradually erasing the gap between itself and the West. It becomes increasingly irrelevant to expect that foreign political elite may represent the interests of the Chinese people when the time comes to elect freely its representatives. That was the reason why DPP at the turn of the century became very popular with its appeal for complete political independence from China. The economic transformation of Chine however led to gradual erosion of the traditional industries in Taiwan. As the investors' interest moved to the mainland, Taiwan turned into high-tech R&D center for millions of jobs exported across the strait. The island became more and more dependent on China for its economic prosperity despite its current government unwillingness to face the reality. Democracy in its modern version means people care more about their welfare and if it depends on China it would be increasingly improbable that many would buy complete independence without being threatened by direct military occupation. Despite its independence stance Taiwan makes little to produce alternative sources of investment. The real estate market is not fully liberalized for foreigners. They still face all sorts of restrictions when buying properties. Therefore these two traditional roads to Taiwan look increasingly irrelevant. A third option for this de facto independent country may imply gradual economic integration into China on terms similar or even more generous than those given to Hong Kong. Initial push toward such solution may be given by democratization of the political system in Hong Kong, or by the first salvos of the general democratization in China itself. Therefore the key is in Beijing.
Taiwan profile:
|
See also: