Taiwan is one of the few places that can produce the next major international conflict; therefore we need monitor closely any event that can trigger such conflict coming out of this region. In the Chinese New Year of the Rat (2008), when the United States are cyclically out of the major international politics for reasons linked with the presidential campaign, any sudden move in Taiwan, not necessary intentional, may trigger consequences far more important than its architects could realize. Such an event, related to the international status of this territory, is already making noises in Beijing and in Washington DC. How these two countries will deal with it will determine whether or not the peace across the Strait of Formosa will reign for many more decades.

The synopsis of the story is the following: In early January, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party won a resounding victory in the island's parliamentary elections. Two months from now, another election will determine the next president of this country, internationally recognized by only 23 other states. For most countries, recognizing Taiwan as a state and establishing diplomatic relations leads to freezing any political and diplomatic relations with China. Beijing considers Taiwan as a renegade province since the late 1940s. The political elite in Taiwan is divided over the main question of the future of the territory within or outside China. The KMT party claims to be representative of all China pending democratization of this country. The other main party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), wants to bring the island to full independence.

The current moment is very delicate; the country is ruled at the same time by DPP and pro-independence president Chen Shui-bian, on the one hand, and a parliament dominated by the KMT, on the other hand. The dangerous move, we are talking about, is the presidential initiative to call for a public referendum over the technically unimportant but symbolically sensitive issue of under what name the territory should apply to become UN member, 'Republic of China' or 'Taiwan'. The idea behind this referendum is clear; the goal is to trigger public debate that may result in a victory of the pro-independence faction, and thus to make more plausible the victory of the DPP candidate in the incoming presidential election. The bad news is that this purely domestic political question has also international dimensions; it may trigger strong reaction from China, and the fact that the United States 'will be away' for a while from the region won't help appease the situation.

The last element makes the situation particularly dangerous. The American reaction, which is still very diplomatic but nonetheless negative, to the Taiwanese move can produce false impression of 'cool' relations between Washington and Taipei. Such impression can incite Beijing to act decisively in order to retake what she considers to be her own. Will the Olympic games of this coming summer, which in a sense were designed to make China more peaceful in this American year of decision, be enough to stop an escalation over an issue that doesn't need to become a problem in the first place? It may be, but a world peace based solely on good intentions and ideas will be inherently shaky.

Taiwan profile:

• Population: 22.8 million (July 2007 est.)
• Population growth rate: 0.3% (2007 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 77.56 years
• Total fertility rate: 1.12 children born/woman (2007 est.)
• Languages: Mandarin Chinese (official), Taiwanese (Min)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $29,600 (2006 est.)
• Main trading partners: China (including Hong Kong), Japan, United States.
• Internet users: 13.8 million (2005)

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2007, Reuters)

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