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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Amidst becoming a permanent financial and economic crisis Turkey heads toward new parliament elections in November. The total popular disillusion of the parties taking part in the current government coalition may bring to power the islamists, opposing secular state and pro-western reforms as well as an eventual US war against Iraq. Nevertheless there is a chance for pro-western politicians to speed up the bid for EU membership and the much needed economic and financial reforms in the coming months.

The biggest party in the government coalition in Turkey - Democratic Left Party of the Prime minister Bulent Ecevit (77), has imploded in recent weeks, the government coalition has lost its parliament majority and the country is heading towards elections in early November. There are no chances that this party or any other party of the current coalition could win this election because of the deep economic and financial crisis that has ruled over the country in the last 2 years.

The Bulent Ecevit's party most probably won't pass the 10-percent barrier to enter the new parliament. The other two coalition partners - the Nationalist Action Party and the party of Mesut Yilmaz, will have to do their best to bring their people in the new assembly. The big winner according to recent polls will be the islamist Party of Justice and Development, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There are chances for the Social Democratic Party to bring its people inside the parliament. This party is led by former foreign minister Ismail Cem, known as a fan of the EU membership.

The new political crisis in Turkey occurs in a very sensitive moment in the world political life, when the USA are looking for partners and allies for an eventual military campaign against Iraq (sharing a long border with Turkey). A war with or without the Turkey's participation will mean a hard blow over the tourist industry in the county, the last hard currency Golden Goose that keeps its economy from sinking. Ruled by an islamist government, Turkey most probably won't give its territory to Washington for operations thus bringing close to zero the chances of any military success.

But there are chances to neutralize all these negative scenarios and first of them is to expect that the secular military won't tolerate any islamist political adventure and will move to push down such government as was the case in 1997. There are though other options that will save pro-western political orientation of the country without rejecting the democratic political structures of the Turkish society.

Turkey is amidst deep economic and financial crisis, the deepest since World War II, and the country desperately needs Western assistance. The USA and Europe are ready to provide such assistance through the international financial institutions such as IMF and World Bank but only if the country continues its market-oriented reforms. The current government coalition, being a lame duck for the next 3 months, can push for these reforms without taking much care about the public discontent. On the other hand, after the general election in November the secular left and right-wing parties can form a large coalition to pass the much needed legislature to speed up the bid for EU membership.

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