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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Transnistria: More or fewer states in Europe?Transnistria region of Moldova, de facto an independent polity heavily dependent economically upon Russia, is to decide on referendum shortly on its future integration into Russian Federation. 'Pridnestrovie' referendum, by the name its Russian-speaking population calls the region, will definitely seal the question whether or not it will join again Moldova. It won't! This referendum became almost inevitable after the popular consultation that decided the fate of Montenegro earlier this year and we predicted this to happen rather sooner than later. Yet instead of producing another new state in Europe, Transnistria (Pridnestrovie) this development may reduce the actual number of states by one, Moldova.
 Transnistria (Pridnestrovie), in yellow, squeezed between Moldova (in blue) and Ukraine
A little historyThe interesting part in the regional history begins in late 18th century when imperial Russia occupies with force this territory, once part of the Ottoman Empire. What is today Moldova including Transnistria is officially a part of Russia up to the World War I. The split occurs between the two world wars. Moldova proper becomes a Romanian province; Transnistria becomes an autonomous region within Ukraine, which is incorporated into the USSR. In 1940 the Soviet Union occupies parts of Romania, including Moldova. During the World War II Romania as an ally of Germany takes back some territories plus annexes some new territories including Transnistria. After the war the Soviet Union reestablishes the 1940 border. Transnistria is again part of Moldova, but Moldova is constituent republic within the Soviet Union.The end of 1980s is a time of big troubles for the Soviet Union. Some constituent republics produce large popular movements asking for independence. Moldova isn't an exception. Germany reunites in 1990. Fearing possible Moldovan reunion with Romania, Transnistria region de facto separates administratively from Moldova. They haven't been part of Romania except briefly during the World War II after all. They feel more attached to Russia for many historic and cultural reasons, last but not least of them being that the population is predominantly composed of russophones. Russia supports militarily and economically Transnistria for most of the post-1991 period. Officially it neither recognizes its independence nor claims sovereignty over it. It's its chief bargaining chip against Moldova; it promises to influence Transnistria in order to secure its possible large autonomy within Moldova, but at the cost of Moldova turning its back to the West in all its forms, NATO, EU, and of course saying farewell to any reunion with Romania.
Putting finally all things in their placesThe situation between 1990 and 2006 seems untenable for all sides in political and diplomatic conflict surrounding Transnistria. Moldova has already made its mind in terms of international orientation; the West has no real alternative; Russia is too unpredictable to be considered as a reliable partner; tens of thousands Moldovan citizens have already applied for Romanian citizenship, benefiting from the country's future EU membership. Russia is also unhappy with a situation when it cannot exercise full control over a territory, which is already in fact owned by its largest corporations. Moscow cannot give it back to Moldova, but it cannot tolerate being held hostage by people in charge without putting them into a clear administrative subordination. There was one more element that was missing before; the referendum in Montenegro set a EU-approved standard for independence through popular consultation. What's perfectly legal on the Balkans cannot be declared illegal in the former Soviet Union.Despite all possible boycotts and rejections coming from the West, people in Brussels (NATO, EU) actually want this new independence to happen. They cannot force Russia to give this region back to Moldova, they cannot either easily recognize its independence, what they can do is to close their eyes on its possible political attachment to Russia. Russia has another enclave far in West, Kaliningrad region, so Transnistria won't set a precedent. It may set a precedent for other regions without clear jurisdiction to be annexed by Russia, but no current NATO or EU members will have their interests harmed as a result.
Forecast: more or fewer states?Transnistria referendum will answer with clear "yes" on the question of independence from Moldova and on possible integration with Russia. It will most probably be declared illegal by all possible western authorities. Moscow will declare it legal and will press forward for official annexation. The West will have to accept the fact, Transnistria is a very small and without any strategic interest chunk of land, and nobody will be ready to fight for it after all. The West doesn't need to fight for it either. If Ukraine moves toward the West economically, Transnistria will be detached from Russia; if Ukraine moves East, Transnistria will be just a tiny part of the larger Russian bridgehead into Europe. In any case Transnistria won't make a difference.The real difference will be felt in Moldova, which will have to say farewell to all its ambitions of eastward territorial enlargement. Still without clear European perspective it may decide to accelerate the process by making itself annexed by Romania, an already NATO and very soon an EU member. Making itself annexed by Romania is the best thing most people in Moldova can aspire for. If Transnistria has all reasons to feel comfortable within Russia, Moldova proper has no fewer reasons to feel comfortable within Romania, especially when Romania is already part of Europe.
Transnistria (Pridnestrovie) facts: --------------------
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