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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Tunisia: It's all about successionOn the top political level there is surprisingly little differences between democratic and authoritarian regimes and they come up precisely at the moment when their mandates end. The democratic policies give back the power to choose the next legislative and executive powers to its ultimate sovereign, the people. The authoritarian rulers, even if they play with the democratic procedures, ultimately remain in power until they are violently brought down. When a year ago I dared to share my views of the Tunisian political system I get many letters attacking my bona-fide status as independent analyst. This wasn't surprising; usually all undemocratic rulers and their faithful sycophants consider independent observers as agents at the enemy's payroll. There was no way to prove my innocense, as there was no way to convince recently Moscow that 200,000 revolutionaries in Kiev in November-December 2004 weren't CIA-paid agents. Having said that, we have to expect aggressive attacks from authoritarian fans until the system they admire still functions anywhere in the world. Regarding Tunisia, I have two pieces of news for them, a good and a bad one. The good one is that the current regime of Ben Ali will probably last for another 5-10 years, although not all odds are in favor of such scenario. The bad news is that at the end of this period the odds will strongly favor democratization of the country without serious danger of Islamic revolution. At the surface the political system of Tunisia still remains unmoved. It's authoritarian and highly personalized* with the president Ben Ali at the very top. The only real challenge to his rule is the age** and the existing political precedent of 1987 to remove older leaders in bloodless coup. Let's assume that Ben Ali is clever enough not to allow his opponents to ally and remove him at least till 2014 when he'll be almost 80. Then the presumably strongest point in any authoritarian system, the lack of clear succession rules, will play against it. Even if the social activity is kept under strict control, it won't be possible to orchestrate new bloodless coup counting on the public apathy like in 1987. By making Tunisia more modern and overt economic system, Ben Ali himself created the forces that wouldn't allow the authoritarian regime to last indefinitely. What would change between 1987 and 2014? The half rural-half urban society would have already become predominantly urban. The 3-children family model would have given ground to European-like 1-child model. Getting married as early as possible which was almost a social duty not so far ago will be replaced by more diversified life styles. Now almost half of the boys and more than third of the girls prefer celibacy. Almost all Tunisians coming into age are already literate. The generation between 20 and 35 is highly penetrated by Internet and other modern means of communication. Access to modern amenities will be part of everyday life, not a luxury. The "sacred home trio" of the 20th century modernization - refrigerator, laundry, TV would have changed the way people in Tunisia live, think and behave. Ten years from now the younger adult generation will constitute substantial part of the work force and will occupy low and middle ground decision-making positions. When the generation of current political patriarchs is gone, there will be small window of opportunity to get rid of the 50-60 year old "new wave" of apparatchiks that currently make their plans to become next rulers. In 10 years the living standard will reach or almost reach the threshold that makes the countries with diversified economies like Tunisia more likely to embrace democratic rule than remain authoritarian. Such window of opportunity was enough to oust the old communist guard in Central Europe in 1989. As so many times in the past***, the authoritarian regime will fall victim of its own modernization success. The social modernization won't be enough to make this transition by 2009-2014 irreversible****. What it will make will be to raise the costs of dictatorship, making it less attractive and thus less likely option.
* - Not all authoritarian systems are highly personalized as we can see in China.
Tunisia country profile: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Tunisia.
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