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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The worst political scenario in Turkey has happened. The Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) has seize the political power in the country and its representative Abdullah Gul has been sworn in as new Prime minister to lead a single-party government*. The votes' reject of the traditional parties was so evident during the last election that only one of them (Republican Peoples Party - RPP) succeeded to bring in its men into the parliament**.

The political guard has changed dramatically in Turkey but the problems that are facing the Turkish society have remained the same. The main tasks, to mention a few, are to reform the economy that has shrunk with almost 10% last year, to seek European Union membership, to solve the Cypress problem, to prepare the country for the eventual war with Iraq and for the influx of many thousands Kurdish refugees from Northern Iraq.

The economic reforms has to be continued, otherwise the country risks to lose the next IMF $1.6 billion installment, part of a $16 billion rescue package. The new Prime minister has promised to continue with the reforms but IMF wants actions not just words.

The task to bring back on track the national economy seems enormous but it isn't the only one. So far Turkey remains the only EU candidate without clear prospect of when and if it will enter the union. Brussels so far even refuses to start pre-access talks with Ankara, saying Turkey still has to reach the EU political and human rights standards. Here too the EU doesn't want words, but action and political will.

When we talk about the Turkish EU aspirations, the problem of Cypress comes into view and blocks the road. The island was divided in 1974 after a Greece backed a military coup there and Turkey invaded more than third of it. The island has been invited to join the EU and will do this most probably by 2004 but so far only the Greek community has taken part in the negotiations. Finding a solution to unite again the island could help the Turkish candidature. If the status quo is preserved that could mean almost certainly an annexation by Turkey of the northern parts.

The first real test for the new government would be the crisis between the US and Iraq and the possible use of Turkish territory from the US led coalition. On the one hand, the ruling JPD has a wing strongly opposing any military and logistic assistance against Iraq. On the other hand, Turkey needs a foreign assistance to stabilize its economy and finance. If the country wants to get something from the West, its government has to be prepared to give something instead and not just words.

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* - This is the first single-party government in Turkey in the last 15 years.

** - JDP won 363 of the 550 parliament seats at November 3rd polls; the remaining seats were distributed between RPP and independent MPs.

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