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Archived Articles  Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions). He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.
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Turkmenistan: All avenues are open againTurkmenistan's 'president for life' Niyazov died at age 66. Not a good life expectancy record for a person that could offer himself the best medical care in the world money could buy. He died in his sleep after being declared in excellent health for so many years by famous western medical specialists. This death however is much more than a medical puzzle, it opens again all avenues for political change; avenues that seemed closed since the end of Soviet Union in 1991. Whether Turkmenistan will use this 'second chance' is still another story.
History primerSaparmurat Niyazov ruled over Turkmenistan since the mid-1980s; then as a first secretary of local communist party, later as president, 'president for life', and father of all Turkmen. He published his personal 'holy book', a must-read for every citizen; he renamed months in the calendar after his family members; he put his golden statue in a public square turning around at 360 degrees. There is clear evidence that Turkmenistan after the fall of communism has become less free country; something usually considered being impossible given totalitarian nature of Soviet regime. Niyazov turned back history clocks to the era of Stalin, he eliminated bureaucracy autonomy, eliminated party autonomy, eliminated any possible dissent at any level. Worse than Stalin, Niyazov didn't need educated and healthy population for building industrial utopia; thus no need of educational and health care institutions. He was a traditionalist trying to keep power at any cost, but he died leaving enormous vacuum in need of transformation.
Natural death or murder?This death looks much more like a murder than like natural death. The problem is not purely medical. If we deal with a murder, then new power elite will take and consolidate power soon; if we deal with natural cause, then an open conflict for power may result. So far it seems the death is organized and new leaders are ready to defend their power against possible opposition. We know that communications between Turkmenistan and outside world are cut, that new leaders are in control of situation, that constitutional options for change are eliminated, and that armed forces support tacitly new regime. All these things could have been almost impossible to gather in so little time if the death had element of surprise. At his age given his excellent health any natural death would have been a surprise; it seems it isn't such a surprise; therefore the death perhaps has no natural cause.
Possible avenuesEven with a coup, all possible political avenues for Turkmenistan are still open. Gradual consolidation of power toward one supreme leader is a difficult task, especially in a country where there are no leaders but only one supreme leader who's dead. Therefore a period of relative political liberalization cannot be excluded; a period when many elite factions will use popular support in order to gain extra power. After eliminating communist party and organized bureaucracy as autonomous factors, Niyazov makes struggle for power after his death especially ferocious. Instead of long and tacit process of political coalition building, the most decisive factor will depend on who controls which segment of armed forces and who can bring more armed people on the streets.Is democracy possible at all?Is democracy in Turkmenistan possible, perhaps not liberal, perhaps only electoral, very limited, but nevertheless democracy when people make certain decisions on who will rule the country? It may be possible, but given country's specificity I can't see it without at least a certain period of intense political struggle. The best scenario looks like this: after current coup different factions within new elite start fighting for supreme power, they use their control over armed forces or local clans to gain additional support. At the end nobody is able to claim supreme power, thus they need a sort of institutional arrangement delimiting their power. This arrangement will eliminate strong office of president and will transfer bulk of power to parliament, therefore creating breeding ground for strong parties. This institutional arrangement will produce much-needed democratic window of opportunity thus gradually eliminating centuries-long legacies of undemocratic rules. What's the alternative? No serious conflict within new elite, simple change of guards, new cult of personality, many more years of tyranny, and new window of opportunity at the end of tunnel when the next 'president for life' dies from 'natural cause'.Turkmenistan country profile: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Turkmenistan.
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