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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Can Yushchenko and Tymoshenko be together again?

The recent parliament election in Ukraine created opportunity for two different types of coalition government. One possible coalition will lead the country toward Russia; the other will move it toward the West. The common thing is that any of them must include the pro-president party "Our Ukraine", people that were among the Orange revolutionaries 15 months ago, but now are trying to balance between the West and Moscow, between the lure for a strong center and the idea of empowering regions. The country that until recently was considered as nothing more than a Russia appendix may again fall into its imperial hug. Despite the bad performance during the election it's this party that will ultimately determine where Ukraine will go.

Even before the final results were announced, it had become clear that no party would enjoy an absolute majority in the parliament, which under the fairly recent constitutional reform had become a real legislative body, unlike the puppet parliaments in many post-Soviet republics with strong presidents. The main parties that may form governing coalitions are four, the "Regions of Ukraine" led by the former Prime Minister and Russian protégé Viktor Yanukovych, the "Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc" which stands on clear pro-western positions, the pro-presidential party "Our Ukraine" which tries to balance between Russia and the West, and the smaller Socialist Party led by Oleksandr Moroz, which leans toward the West. The possible coalitions are Yanukovych+ Yushchenko or Tymoshenko+Yushchenko+ Moroz. Almost impossible seems to have pro-Russian and pro-Western parties sharing the government. The President Viktor Yushchenko and his people seem necessary element in each of these alternative coalitions. Which explains why he has delayed to name his preferable political partners.

No doubt Russia will like to see its people taking the power in coalition with the President's party. If this happens it will seem that the Russian defeat in the natural gas "war" earlier this year was only a tactical step back in exchange for political cooperation by Yushchenko against the pro-western political and business circles in Kiev. Yushchenko waits for better deal with either Moscow or the West. He's a good politician and don't allow his feelings to take over his sense of reality. Right now Moscow is ready to pay more than the West in terms of economic and financial aid. On the other hand, the pro-Russian protégés in Kiev try to undermine the power of the central authorities, and by this to weaken the presidency, by empowering the regions, some of which have very close economic ties with Russia and are almost ready for economic annexation. Making coalitions with either of these blocs will be a poisonous apple for Yushchenko, who already had bad experience with poisons, but one of them at the end will look less poisonous than the other.

It isn't necessary to remind what Ukraine means for either Europe and Russia and why they should both not allow it to go in the opposite direction. Without it Russia will be isolated from Europe and humiliated; Europe, on the other hand, without Ukraine will be cut from the post-Soviet space for decades ahead, because it seems that the current Russian rise isn't temporary phenomenon. Given the almost equal opportunity to build either of these alternative coalitions it seems that the final decision with all its consequences, maybe for the first time in Ukrainian history, will be made inside the country by its political elite.

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