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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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For the third time in less than 3 years pro-western political forces win majority in free and fair elections in Ukraine. Twice so far dubious political machinations led to breakdown of these coalitions; and once minority forces, backed by Russia, took control of the parliament. The lack of party and coalition loyalties led to these results. Once again these days Ukraine made a choice for the model symbolized by the West, not by Russia. Today still, this choice isn't clear enough to eliminate any attempt of repeating some of the recent events. And yet, Ukraine is clearly not Russia. Regardless of the pressure, political and economic, on this smaller ex-Soviet republic, Kiev embraces political plurality, and thus sends some positive signals to the international investors about the predictability of the current regime.

Since the fall of the communism, Russia has two open wounds. The first one, Chechnya, is gradually healing, after two wars and countless casualties. The second, Ukraine, is far from healing; in fact, it's growing since 2004, when the political status quo of former communists was shaken for the first time. Ukraine hasn't become a western country, not yet. It's still outside both NATO and the EU. It may never join these or any other exclusively western club. But the breakthrough in mentality happened. Nobody looks at Kiev today as a willing servant of its masters in Moscow. Even when pro-Kremlin forces occupy the power forefront, they must do it preserving the rules of the fair game.

Any country needs sufficient self-positioning before becoming attractive to investors, both domestic and international. In a sense, Russia today is more attractive than 10 years ago; not because it's more democratic or more liberal or more a rule of law country, but because anybody knows who's the master(s) and that these masters are here to stay. Democratic countries, not surprisingly, don't provide such 'stability' for investors. Governments there may change, but what remains relatively stable, are the rules. That's exactly what lacks in Ukraine, stability. Unable to move either way, to Russia or to the West, Kiev is stuck in a position that is worst possible in terms of stability. To a degree, it looks very similar to some Balkan countries in the mid-1990s. Still unwanted by the NATO and the EU, but willing not to move to the East, they represented the worst possible combination of isolation and unclear positioning. Now, when some of these countries are within NATO and the EU, the picture has changed dramatically for better in both Romania and Bulgaria.

The recent parliament election in Ukraine won't put the dots on every "i". The predictability of the regime parameters is still far from guaranteeing stable economic and financial policy in any meaningful way. And that's what investors want most of all. The best solution would be, of course, to have Ukraine on board together with most Central and Eastern European countries. The political traditions of this country, however, point out at a very different direction: indecisiveness, lack of coalition and party loyalties, hidden machinations, and poisoning. Will this vicious circle end? Probably, some day, but nobody can now say when, and especially what will be the end of the story.

Ukraine country profile:

• Area: 603,700 sq km
• Population: 46.3 million (July 2007 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 67.8 years
• Main ethnic groups: Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3% (2001 census)
• Religions: Religions: 4 Orthodox groups (Moscow Patriarchate, Kiev Patriarchate, Autocephalous, and with no particular jurisdiction), Ukrainian Catholic (Uniate), Protestant, Jewish.
• Languages: Ukrainian (official), Russian, Romanian, Polish, and Hungarian.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $7,800 (2006 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 29% (2003 est.)
• Main trading partners: Russia, some EU countries, Turkey, and the United States.
• Internet users: 5.5 million (2006)

(Source: CIA World Factbook 2007; Reuters)

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