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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The tsunamis in South Asia took the lives of more than 200,000 people. That will look as a minor event compared to what could possibly happen to some of the biggest urban areas in the world, which face imminent natural disasters. At least that makes us believe the UN director of emergency relief Jan Egeland, the person known better for his remarks about the "stinginess" of some rich countries after the last Christmas disaster. He has even calculated that such mega-city disasters would take 100 times more lives. Mega-cities are usually the biggest urban areas with a population of 10 million or more. The problem isn't the population itself but its higher concentration, according to Egeland. The disasters can be inflicted not only by tsunami, but also by earthquakes, volcanoes and tornadoes. In what the tsunamis are concerned, an opposite case can be made, i.e. that higher concentration of people makes less costly the warning system and the structural defense against the natural elements.

Looking closely at this UN warning we must conclude that unfortunately it makes more harm than good by spreading panic instead of carefully elaborated strategy how to cope with these real threats. The panic can make the incoming disasters seeming inevitable and thus unavoidable, which isn't a good point for the human civilization using 21st century technologies. Such sense of incoming death and destruction can be especially dreadful in countries like Japan where you simply can't find safe place to live and to work. All the country is literally standing on major earthquake zones. The only way to prevent huge human losses in countries like Japan without massive emigration is to use the new construction technologies cushioning the deadly affects of the disaster.

The tsunamis are not a new phenomenon but it was the disaster of South Asia that made people and governments realize how deadly it could be if not appropriately prevented. Are the mega-cities more risky places to live in case of tsunami? It may be, given the mere size of the population. Instead of several small fishing villages and thousands of dead the waves wipe out the population of several millions in minutes. That's the scenario the UN predicts. But in fact the mega-cities can be less likely victims of the elements because the costs of preventing disaster divided by inhabitant can be lower than in scarcely populated areas. As little as several meters tall concrete piers that are built in any major port can substantially diminish the deadly waves. Such piers aren't specially designed to withstand tsunamis but they can be of great help when needed. Building specially designed structures will also be much less costly per capita alongside the coastlines of the mega-cities given their big population. Even poorer countries like India or China can afford to build protection walls surrounding their most sensitive economic areas, which are no more than a handful. It seems nobody will protect the fishing communities even in the richest countries apart from building warning systems that assume the tsunamis will take more than half of an hour to reach the coastline.

The mega-cities aren't just big targets waiting to be wiped out by deadly waves. They are the engines of economic development around the globe. Without them and the trade they generate we'll step back into much less advanced and much more authoritarian world, which in no way will be more secure but just less able to cope with the challenges of the future.

Mega-cities at risk

Tokyo

• Population: 35.3 million
• Population in 2015: 36.2 million
• Risks: Earthquake, tropical storm, tornado, storm surge

Mexico City

• Population: 19 million
• Population in 2015: 20.6 million
• Risks: Earthquake, volcano, tornado

Bombay

• Population: 18.3 million
• Population in 2015: 22.6 million
• Risks: Earthquake, flood, tropical storm

Sao Paolo

• Population: 18.3 million
• Population in 2015: 20 million
• Risks: Flood, tornado

Delhi

• Population: 14.1 million
• Population in 2015: 21 million
• Risks: Earthquake, flood, tornado