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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Former Soviet Union: The return of RussiaThanks to tens of billions of western petrodollars, Russia is on its way back as a strong regional power in the post-Soviet Union domain. It's now clear that its design is to build a new empire, its advocates in Moscow call it a 'liberal empire' based on mutual interest instead of brutal force, to pull as many former Soviet republics as possible from the West. The natural gas and other energy sources are used as the main carrot/stick in this plan. Withstanding the wave of color revolutions shows that the regime in Moscow is well entrenched. The authoritarian regime in Belarus, where the government doesn't even try to present it as a 'liberal', will try everything to stay in power. It's highly unlikely that they will put their power on the real test of free and fair elections anytime soon. Ukraine will continue sailing between Russia and the West, by trying to benefit from their differences. The other smaller republics with no access to the West, with difficult political situation at home and tensions with their former imperial master ranging from mild to intolerable, will continue trying to build strong economies on shattered ground.
RussiaAs we predicted last year, Russian government had to say farewell to some of its most liberally oriented members. The war for redistribution of property after Yeltsin's departure in late 1999 may now be officially considered to be over. Moscow succeeded in turning away the waves of color revolutions that swept over some of its former satellites. Any substantial change within the political elite is considered as undesirable. The president Putin seems determined to leave the office in 2008 as planned, although he may still change his mind during the rest of his second term. It seems that he will prefer, everything else being equal, to bestow the supreme power to someone else. The weakest point in any autocracy is the succession to the thrown. If Putin makes it, that will prolong the life of the current political system. Keeping alive this system has its positive outcomes. For many domestic and foreign investors it's preferable to deal with predictable autocrats than with unpredictable democrats. It isn't a coincidence that in economic terms the best performing developing country is autocratic China.
BelarusThe situation in Belarus is less predictable and more dangerous than in Russia, and the reason for this is the personal dictatorship established by the president instead of more oligarchic structures that exist in Moscow. The main goal is the same as in Moscow, not to allow political change at any cost. If in Russia by change they mean to pass the power to people outside the now ruling oligarchy, in Minsk the change is to pass the power to another individual than the current president Lukashenko. He still looks very powerful and full of energy to eliminate anyone who dares to challenge his position. This may however change when his internal circle understands that there should be no change at all without eliminating the current leader. In short-term Belarus provides more political stability and therefore more stability for investors than Russia, in long-term their positions may switch.
UkraineThe situation in Ukraine is less predictable than in Russia and Belarus. The spirit has been liberated from the bottle. The political war is merciless and the final winner is still undecided despite the Orange revolution outcome. Changing the political system from semi-presidential to quasi-parliamentary may complicate further the political process, making the country even less predictable for investors. To a degree Ukraine now looks like Russia from late 1990s. Everyone now is looking for stability, but when this stability will come it may not look like everyone has wished.
Smaller republics (Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan)These smaller former Soviet republics have something in common; they all have either gone through color revolutions or are expected to follow soon. To a degree they all are very dependent upon the West, meaning a whole myriad of NGOs can more or less freely operate on their soil. These countries, on the other hand, are most likely to be forced back into the Russian orbit because of their relative weakness and complete lack of western interests to integrate them anytime soon. Only a major political turmoil may change their status from battleground between the pro-Western and pro-Russian forces into countries where governments can make more or less independent decisions.
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