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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Everything is interdependent, at least to some extent. Recent developments in Venezuela, where the government is about to begin a huge campaign of nationalization, may affect the life of people living in a very different and much more inhospitable region of Americas, Canadian prairies. It's there that billions of extra U.S. dollars may go to compensate for a missing oil supply from the new socialist country in the western hemisphere.

First, let's look to the facts. Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez got extra powers to nationalize by decrees different private industries and services, such as oil and telecommunications. It isn't known what kind of financial compensation the nationalized companies will get, if any. There is no precise mechanism of determining the exact price of anything without negotiations between sellers and buyers. In this case, it seems there will be no negotiations on the main issue of property transaction; but there may be, however, negotiation on details. Given that these particular private companies are actually not in a mood to sell anything, no matter how the legal process turns out, it will look like confiscation. Which leads us to the next important topic, which is, what will be the reaction of those concerned?

Hardly any government in the world will allow its local private companies, legally investing abroad, to be expropriated without reasonable compensation or proper judicial process following conflicts between local government and private interests. The government of the United States, because we are talking here mainly about American companies threatened with nationalization, will react. What are the options for such a reaction? A war is very unlikely solution, because it will look like Washington is sending to death soldiers in the name of oil interests. Counting on the political opposition in Caracas to stop nationalization is also unrealistic; this opposition had several opportunities to show itself, and all of them showed it was no match for Chavez. So, the reaction is inevitable, but it won't be military. Economic sanctions are what remain in the menu. But this leads us to the next interesting point, what these sanctions will look like, and what their consequences will likely be?

Sanctions, we may expect, will be designed in a way to be proportional to the problem, otherwise they won't be accepted well by the world. To be honest, in this particular moment, any reaction by Washington will be considered by many as an overreaction. What's important for Washington now is to have its main allies on board, not to carry too much about the permanent critics. A sanction looking fairly adequate will be to stop oil import from Venezuela. Oil market right now is good for sellers; Caracas should have no big problem of finding new buyers over time. In fact, it will be Washington that will suffer more, putting a pressure on domestic consumption and on alternative foreign suppliers. Which brings us to the last issue, which is, which countries will replace Venezuela, which is among the major oil exporting countries in the world?

After a brief shock, when lower oil imports to the United States will be compensated by higher prices on the pump, the market logic will bring more oil from other existing suppliers. For strategic reasons Alberta in Canada may be the most important replacement for Venezuela. Alberta is close to the American market, literally on the other side of the international border; Canadian governments are usually business friendly, especially the current federal and provincial governments; there is no additional risk for the oil supplies being cuts due to military or terrorist threats; and higher oil prices will make Albertan oil-sands even more profitable for investors.

What will happen to Alberta, if it has to replace at least partly the missing Venezuelan oil? A Canadian province, which is already struggling to accommodate multibillion investments, will be flooded, unexpectedly, by even more multibillion investments. The real estate market, which is very hot by now, will experience another extra boom. Those who bet on Alberta, as a safe place for their investments, will be rewarded one more time.

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Venezuela and Canada.