Archived Articles

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

Global Real Estate Project
News Index

Directories
  Int'l Realty
  US Realty

Until the end of 2001 the residential and commercial real estate market in Warsaw (Poland) has been recognized for its dynamism, relatively good investment returns and fine mid-term prospective. Following the 9/11 and the general economic slowdown in Europe, in 2002 this market experienced some negative aftershocks, which effects are expected to be felt in the months ahead. The prospects of EU membership in 2004 could again trigger a fresh wave of western investments, sparking a new and sustainable real estate boom in the city of more than 2 million.

The past and present years for Poland in some respect may be described as transitional for its economy and for the real estate market. Many western expatriate specialists, who relocated in Warsaw in the 90's, following the wave of privatization, have already begun to leave the country. Once their contracts ended, the local employees, which salaries are substantially lower, have begun to replace them. The relative decrease of the demand has touched the high-end residential property and rental market. This makes developers more cautious about their future plans. On the other hand, they still refuse to consider lowering the prices. The same applies for the landlords, who are still reluctant to correct the rents. As a result, in 2002 for the first time in many years the construction activity was down compared to the year before.

Fearing that this expatriates exodus could continue, investors gradually turn more attention to the projects benefiting the Polish middle class, wishing to leave behind their high-rise apartments, inherited from the communist past. It seems that for the real estate market to take off it would need some additional easing in the mortgage system, implying even lower interests and speedier bank procedures.

2003 is considered as a transitional year toward the full EU membership. After years of tough talks with Brussels, Poland finally got the official decision to join the union in 2004. Amid the real estate circles in Warsaw it's a widespread belief that this membership could open the gates for a new wave of foreign investments of any kind (retail, industrial, office, residential and infrastructure sectors). In this respect 2003 even if it's expected to be not easier for the industry than 2002, is seen as no more than a little obstacle on the road ahead.

The economic development in Poland in general, and the real estate development in particular depend on at least three features - the domestic stability and pro-market reforms, the benign foreign environment and the future EU membership. As for the EU membership, it will begin to bring fruits in 2004 at the earliest. The foreign environment of Poland at the beginning of 2003 is rather negative for its development. On the one hand, its major trade partner Germany is on the verge of economic recession. On the other hand, the world is waiting for a war against Iraq. The international oil prices could only go up hitting the energy-importing Polish economy. These economic and political crises couldn't be resolved before the middle of 2003. If a new boom in Poland is coming, we will see its signs next year at earliest.

--------------------

See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Poland.