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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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What has started some days ago in Kosovo as simple acts of low-intensity individual violence can soon turn into a prelude to a new war in the western Balkans. At stake is the fragile balance of power that was established some 4 years ago after the NATO bombardment against Serbia. The new increase of violence occurs just months before the key presidential election in the United States, which no doubt has played some role in the new violence timing. The job done by the West between 1992 and 1999 in former Yugoslavia seems not enough to guarantee the peace and security in some parts of the Balkan Peninsula. More radical measures are required to solve the issues, some of which will require Western political will and perhaps a stomach for many casualties.

When at the end of 2003 Serbian citizens opted for more nationalistic political line in Belgrade we warned about possible new ethnic tensions in this part of Eastern Europe. There are at least 3, perhaps 4 unresolved sleeping ethnic and territorial problems in the Western Balkans and any sudden change in the political leadership in at least one of the key local players could be perceived by the others as a potential threat and lead to an escalation of violence. The major among these problems is the status of Kosovo, a Serbian province, inhabited mainly by Albanians, ruled since 1999 as a NATO protectorate. Substantial level of violence in Kosovo, which for many people looks more like a sovereign state than a province, could trigger a military intervention by Serbia.

The key position of Serbia in at least 2 other unresolved issues, the loose federation with Montenegro and the ethnic division of Bosnia, can activate anti-Serbian forces in these two republics. New Serbian intervention in Kosovo or at least a real threat for such intervention could lead again to massive exodus of ethnic Albanians to Macedonia and threaten the ethnic peace and security of this tiny republic, where the Albanians are already a third of the population.

So the Kosovo is a key both to the peace and to the war in the Western Balkans. A quick and wise reaction from the West is needed to stop the violence until there is still a chance for a temporary stabilization of the situation. It's easier to say than to do because right now the main Western power which is the United States isn't inclined to make additional contribution to the peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans and the other Western powers which could do it aren't sufficiently credible to make the situation return to its status quo ante.

Regarding the credibility to use force the West Europeans are in weak position particularly after the Madrid attacks. Everybody saw that a middle-sized European country decided to pull off the battle having no stomach for bloody casualties. Both Albanians and Serbs can use this argument for pushing toward a new redistribution of territories and power in the region without paying too much attention to the Western protests.

Russia can again become an additional disturbing factor in the Balkans. Almost a year after its military withdrawal from Kosovo Moscow can again decide that the right moment to help the "Orthodox and Slav brothers" has come, which undoubtedly will increase the irredentist attitudes of Belgrade toward Kosovo.

There are slight chances that the present crisis can be managed and put under NATO control within the days and weeks to come. It would be surprising although if it could be managed in long run without major redistribution of territories, a prospect that isn't possible right now because of the election mood in the United States. A possible and highly realistic scenario for such redistribution could be to give the Albanians Kosovo as an independent state or as part of Albania. Serbia as a compensation may take control over Serb parts of Bosnia. The remaining parts of Bosnia may be attached to Croatia or to continue existing as an independent state. Montenegro will cut its remaining links from Belgrade. For Serbia this should be the program maximum. Trying to put under control both Kosovo and Serb Bosnia will again make the West unite against Belgrade and will lead to next Serbian national catastrophe, which means Serbia without any say in Kosovo, Bosnia and Montenegro.

Following this realistic scenario of territorial redistribution in the name of the regional peace, which may or may not require new tons of blood, depending on the political will to make wise compromises, Macedonia will remain the only unresolved issue. The chances that this country remains multiethnic are slim; the chances of separation of its western parts populated by Albanians will become greater than ever after an attachment of Kosovo to Albania, and of Serbian Bosnia to Serbia.

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