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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The sun will shine bright on the real estate market (especially on the commercial one) in Western Europe during the coming 2001. Most economic analysts predict that for the first time in years (more exactly in 9 years) the economic development in the European Union countries will be faster than in the USA (3 percent against 2.5 percent). These bold statements have yet to be proven but the fact is that the economy in Western Europe is in a best shape from decades and beginning in 1998 it showed remarkable signs of improvement.

The residential properties are expected to keep their actual price levels in most EU countries and in some major cities even to increase them by 2 to 4 percent in real terms (the nominal price increase minus inflation). These stagnation on one hand and modest gains on the other are explained with the constant local population levels in most regions in Western Europe coupled with the increase of number of legal and illegal immigrants in some major metro centers (especially in Germany, United Kingdom and Italy).

On the commercial real estate market things look much better. There the properties are expected to become more expensive by 5 to 10 percent in real terms. It is also expected that in Ireland (more precisely in Dublin) the office rents may increase by 20-25 percent even if the European Central Bank decides again to augment the main interest rate in the Eurozone (see the article for Ireland). The major incentives for rent increase in the commercial market are the low level of space vacancy (less than 4 percent) and the acceleration process of corporate mergers and acquisitions on the pan-European level.

It is expected that the major cities in Western Europe (over 2 million) will keep their previously held positions on the list of office occupancy costs* that in the recent years was lead with a huge margin by London. The next positions are held by Paris, Frankfurt, Athens, Berlin and Madrid.

There is another important point to be taken into account for people going to buy properties in Western Europe from other parts of the world, especially from the USA. The common European currency euro was depreciated against the US dollar and other major currencies in the last couple of years since it has been launched in January 1999. Now 12 out of 15 countries in EU use it in their account systems. Most analysts expect that the euro will appreciate against the US dollar in 2001 and eventually will pass the equality mark of 1 dollar=1 euro (today 1 euro can be bought for 0.93-0.95 cents). If these forecasts become reality that means that the buyers coming from no-euro countries will have to spend 6 or 7 percent more dollars or other currencies linked to US dollar for the same-price property**.

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* - Occupancy cost includes rents, property tax and maintenance costs if they are paid by the tenants.

** - When people from no-euro countries plan to go to Western Europe and buy or rent some property it's strongly recommended for them to look for financial advise on the exchange rate procedures for the given country in Western Europe.

In most cases the best way for the buyers of transferring currency into the Western Europe is via ATM cards and worst is by getting big amount of cash even if it is allowed by the local laws. The problem with the cash may occur when foreigners are trying to exchange their dollars and realize that the exchange rate for them is much worse (by several percent) than they have expected.

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